In one hour our conversation with host Nima Alkhorshid covered the waterfront of current international issues. We opened with discussion of the results of last week’s BRICS Summit in Kazan and then moved on to war in Ukraine and in particular to the latest stunning Russian successes in Donbas. The presence of North Korean troops in Russia, possibly in Kursk to assist in the mopping up operation there, was a further issue. We concluded with consideration of what a Trump win next week will mean both for shutting down the war in Ukraine and for possibly advancing towards war with China, an eventuality that I see as most improbable.
As I say out the outset of this video, the lighting is less than optimal and the possible intrusion of the sound of the refrigerator’s compressor is what you get when recording from the best lit room in a Petersburg apartment, the kitchen. Accordingly I ask viewers for their indulgence and hope that you will find that the content of this discussion justifies your time.
Nima R. Alkhorshid: 0:05
Today is Friday, November 1st. Gilbert is here with us. Welcome back.
Gilbert Doctorow, PhD:
Thanks. Good to be with you.
Alkhorshid:
You are in Russia right now.
Doctorow:
I’m in my apartment in St. Petersburg right now. So the lighting is not ideal. The sound is a little bit distorted when you’re talking in a kitchen and you have a refrigerator compressor behind you, but this is the way it is.
Alkhorshid:
Yeah. Let’s start with BRICS summit in Russia. You believe that there are a lot of misinterpretation of what has happened in BRIC Summit. What’s your take on what has happened?
Doctorow: 0:48
First, the overriding observation that I have is not very different from what my peers are saying. That is to say, I believe as well as they do that this is a world-changing event. But how it changes the world, what time frame it changes the world, here we have differences. I take as my basis for interpretation, not the declaration of the BRICS summit, not papers, but words, words by the most influential person at the event, the host, Vladimir Putin, in particular in a couple of speeches that he made. One is on the second day, the so-called outreach day, when more than 30 heads of government and foreign ministers from various states, both BRICS members, BRICS designate partner countries, and just those who are onlookers. His speech there, and then still more importantly, his press conference at the conclusion of the summit, were useful to see the dynamics, not a static statement of what our values are, but a dynamic statement of where the organization is headed and what are its priorities.
2:15
And there I find myself in a slightly different position from what others are saying, other Russia followers are saying. And what I have to say I think is quite important to anyone who follows markets, because the number one issue is, is BRICS about de-dollarization, or is BRICS about something much bigger? And a lot of focus has been placed on de-dollarization as if this were the whole objective of BRICS. It isn’t. The objective of BRICS is to create parallel structures for an emerging multipolar world.
2:58
That is the objective of BRICS. And breaking the American domination of finance is a part of the process, but you do this with a sledgehammer or do this with more subtle means that are not off-putting, that do not alienate prospective future members and partners of BRICS. And I would like to call out the real sophistication and the realism as opposed to the wishfulness of the organizers of this summit. And I direct my attention first and foremost to the Russians, to Mr. Putin, to the Chinese, Mr. Xi, and of course to Mr. Modi of India. They are the moving forces in what we saw last week. And above all, for, I think it’s Mr. Putin, not just because of his intellectual leadership, but because of the team that he has managed, that successfully organized a very delicate operation.
4:09
These are all, all the guests are being told that they are equal and that BRICS organization does not put one country above the other. And these principles had to be realized, they had to be put into action when the heads of government were assembled. You can’t have Mr. Xi having a ten-room suite and the president of Bolivia having a two-room or a studio. This is, they have to be matched.
4:45
And that is not an easy thing to do, particularly in a place like Kazan, which is of course an important center, an organizational center, but is not Moscow. I think it was very important for the whole purpose of BRICS and for the whole message of BRICS, that it was held precisely not in Moscow, but in a provincial center, a very wealthy provincial center, because Kazan is the capital of Tatarstan, is the main city in an oil-producing part of Russia. But nonetheless, it is not a normal center for receiving 30 heads of government and the like. So to have pulled this off, to have organized it in a way that left smiles on the faces of all the participants, as we saw from the television coverage, that was quite a feat.
5:40
Now, what did they agree on? As I said, they did not agree on dollarization as their prime objective. They agreed, it appears, to significantly raise the capital, the number of projects, the outreach of the New Development Bank, which is intended as an instrument to be built in parallel to the World Bank and the IMF. These are leading institutions of the American-dominated financial order in the world. And they are very cruel structures to emerging nations.
6:18
To anyone who is in financial trouble, they come to your aid, but they virtually decapitate your country. They take control of your budget and they impose this austerity, which of course is very cruel to the lower and middle classes of the country involved, and has political consequences. Well, the New Development Bank doesn’t do that. It doesn’t impose conditions of a political nature, and it is a very interesting point of attraction that BRICS has and will further grow in making itself a place, a safe harbor for emerging countries or for the global south. So that is one vector.
7:08
Another obvious point which has as the necessary consequence de-dollarization is who has been invited as the last round of 2023 and who as core members. I have in mind the United Arab Emirates and Iran. This is United Arab Emirates are a main repository of reserves from the oil-producing countries in the Middle East, and Iran, which is itself a major producer of oil and a lesser producer of gas. Now, in this round, in which no new core members are added, but 13 candidates have been named for partnership, we find two major producers of oil, and that is Nigeria– and gas– Nigeria and Algeria. The point that I’m making is that at its center, the core is growing, the BRICS is growing its control over global supplies of hydrocarbons. And that all bears on the dollar, because the dollar’s dominance and place as a reserve currency is bolstered by its position as the currency of exchange of the single biggest-traded commodity in the world, which is oil.
8:49
If BRICS has in it so many producers and so much, such control essentially, of the trade in hydrocarbons, it is working to de-dollarize the petroleum exchange. And that means that the petrodollar is in peril. And the petrodollar, as I said, is a major bolster, support, for American financial dominance. Mr. Putin announced also at the BRICS summit the planned creation of a bourse and a commodity exchange, global commodity exchange for grain trading.
9:33
The argument that was given is that this will take grain trading out of the hands of the speculators in Chicago and put it into safe hands of an exchange that seeks to reduce speculation and to assure the emerging countries of the world of food security. That is the humanitarian explanation for it. I can give you another explanation for it. It is another move against the dollar. Grain, wheat, corn, they are traded in dollars.
If the BRICS has an exchange, you can be sure they will not be dollar based. The same is true of the metal exchange. Putin announced that the BRICS is going to create a gold and silver exchange. That will not be denominated in dollars. These are all kicking the supports out from under the dollar. So there you have it, a very subtle but powerful move on the dollar.
10:46
But that is the sidelines of BRICS, not the central focus of BRICS. And why is there no effort to create a parallel to SWIFT, that is the global Brussels-based American-dominated messaging system between all banks of the world, except those that have been sanctioned by the United States, like Russia and Iran. The world trades, does its banking through SWIFT. It would be off-putting to perspective new members of BRICS if they had to forego the use of this existing functional system, if they had to self-isolate and turn themselves by their own efforts into sanctioned countries. So by their realism and maturity, the guiding hands of BRICS are saying to the world, “Look, this is a system we are working to change global management, financial management, and political management, but it doesn’t happen in one day. And there will be a period of coexistence. And as two systems exist in tandem, the one that we know till now and the one that is being created under the aegis of BRICS.”
12:19
“We do not require that you put all eggs in one basket, that you turn your back on the West and come running to us. No, no, you can keep one foot there. We don’t mind that. It’s just a matter of practicality that you do that.” So aside from the very serious technical issues of creating an alternative to SWIFT, there is a more important political consideration not to pressure prospective new adherents to BRICS by imposing conditions that they can object to.
So countries can have a foot in both camps. Turkey is an outstanding case, member of NATO. How could they possibly let it into BRICS? Well, into the core of BRICS, they’re not letting it. But as a partner, yes, all our partners will have, will be allowed to sit on the fence, sort of have, as I said, a foot in both camps.
13:16
That is a sign of real maturity and of self-confidence, that they don’t have to destroy the existing things to create a new system. They can tolerate a period of coexistence when they emerge and become more influential and more powerful than the G7 and all the other mechanisms. So these are the, I think what I saw as the main achievements and main directions for further development of BRICS, which none of us, and I put myself in that group as well, none of us foresaw. That was quite remarkable.
Alkhorshid: 13:58
What have we learned from what has happened between China and India in terms of their border problems?
Doctorow:
Well, I understand that in preparation for BRICS, the two sides had an agreement that they would take measures to reduce the tensions and to find a practical solution to the border dispute. It was kept quiet. It was announced just as BRICS was about to assemble. And at the very start of BRICS, the body language of Modi and Xi made it clear that they have reached an accommodation and they intend to proceed as good working partners in BRICS, notwithstanding the past differences they have and notwithstanding the fact that, let’s face it, they are serious competitors for global manufacturing. The United States has been playing India off against China in that way as a way of reducing the reliance of global supply chains on China. Nonetheless, the leaders of these two countries, I say, are quite mature and realistic, and they’re looking for accommodation and a way forward as leaders within BRICS. So that is all to the good. I don’t say that BRICS made this happen, but BRICS helped this to occur.
Alkhorshid: 14:58
And you mentioned Turkiye. On the other hand, we had Saudi Arabia being part of BRICS, and nobody knows what’s the situation in Saudi Arabia. Do they have any sort of solid understanding of what’s going on with Saudi Arabia?
Doctorow:
Certainly nothing in the public domain. The fact is that Saudi Arabia was at the summit one year ago; they were on the list of invitees. There should have been ten members of BRICS, or more actually, but Argentina dropped out and Saudi Arabia held off giving an answer. Still, the relationship of Saudi Arabia with BRICS members is much closer than appears to the naked eye. After all, the OPEC-plus is managed jointly by Russia and Saudi Arabia.
16:41
This is of key importance to the economic welfare of Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, that they have this ongoing, long-lasting partnership, very close cooperation with Russia. So, Saudi Arabia may not be in BRICS proper, but it’s on the fringes of BRICS because of its very close working relationship with Russia, including the question– and I should say China as well– including the question of de-dollarization. The Saudis did not renew their obligations under written agreements with the United States over the petrodollar. The Saudi Arabians have been playing with selling to China and Iran. Therefore, in the general principle, Saudi Arabia is presenting itself as a major prospective contributor to de-dollarization.
17:48
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is in a defense alliance with the United States, and it cannot just hop from one side to the other without taking very great risks. We saw that when the Houthis forced Saudi Arabia to desist from its support to their opponents in Yemeni civil war by bombing Saudi, by missile attack, Saudi oil installations, it was clear that Saudi Arabia is vulnerable militarily and has to be very careful. And part of that caution is not to competely alienate the United States. So I don’t think that we have to be too concerned that Saudi has not signed up. They haven’t said no, they haven’t said yes. They’re standing and watching, for obvious reasons. I think that everyone is watching how the Ukraine war is evolving.
19:00
And as I’ve said on other occasions, the mood of heads of state, heads of government, is very much the same psychology that applies to ordinary mortals. They want to be on the side of winners and not on the side of losers. And for the last year, and particularly for the last several months, it has been perfectly clear to every objective observer that Russia is winning, not just against Ukraine, but against the whole of NATO, plus another dozen or more countries that have signed up to provide support to Ukraine at the behest of the United States. But Russia is clearly winning. And so you had the, despite all of the efforts by Washington to sabotage the BRICS gathering and to remind the world that Vladimir Putin has been condemned by the International Criminal Court and all the rest of this propaganda, nobody paid heed to it.
20:07
They came, they enjoyed being guests of Vladimir Putin. They took their selfies with him when they had an opportunity. And so it is a way of saying that the 30 or more countries that were there, representing 45 percent of the world’s population, do not believe anything coming out of Washington.
Alkhorshid: 20:33
And the situation with Venezuela, you know, that the country is important for Russia in South America. On the other hand, we’ve seen that it seems that Brazil, Lula, without the possibility of Venezuela being part of BRICS, how, what are they talking about in Russia about this? It was all about Brasil blocking Venezuela
Doctorow:
The Russians aren’t talking about this They know very well what you just said. But there are a lot of things they don’t talk about. They don’t want to endanger relations with Brazil. Brazil takes over next year, the presidency of BRICS. They would be very foolish to antagonize Lula over the issue of Venezuela.
21:32
At the same time, I’d like to point out just the human side of this. I don’t know what you saw. I was very impressed by Maduro. He must have lost 20 kilograms. He looks very gentlemanly and very much a world leader. I think it’s a question of time before he’s admitted over– this will pass. The position of Lula will change over time. He has to show that he has some power, and he had every right to do that. It is the governing rule of BRICS that all decisions are made by consensus. Therefore, it would be, Russians would be bad sports if they denied the Brazilians the right to their own voice and to veto something. I don’t think this should be blown out of proportion.
22:34
On the other hand, it is notable that Bolivia was added. Bolivia is one of the 13 designated partners which will come on board in 2025. And the Russians gave some attention to Bolivia and to the president in advance of Greece. And they pointed out to their audience that he is a real intellectual leader. He is a major actor on the world stage.
Mr. Maduro is embedded in Venezuela, okay. And he stands for certain politics which are liked or not liked by his neighbors. Bolivia is not in that situation, and Bolivia’s led by a man who enjoys very big international respect. Therefore, for the sake of Latin America, I think it probably was better that Bolivia is the new flag carrier for their region of BRICS rather than Venezuela.
23:37
Then of course you have compensation. In compensation to the left, you have Cuba designated as a prospective partner. So– and then a few days later, as we know, just a couple of days ago, you had 187 countries in the United Nations General Assembly voting against American sanctions. You had– on Cuba, trade sanctions, the embargo, And you’ve had only two countries, the United States and Israel, who voted for continuation of that embargo. So I wouldn’t worry about which way the world is going. The American foreign policy of, as they used to say, me-me-I, that is pure unadulterated egoism at the expense of the rest of the world, has been shown up.
24:30
And remarkably, all of America’s allies had enough of this. And you would think that, all right, the EU abstained. The great British poodle would abstain. No, they all voted against the United States on this. So the times are changing.
Alkhorshid: 24:55
It’s out of our discussion, but do you understand the behavior of United States toward Cuba? Because they have been under the sanctions for more than, if I’m not mistaken, 68 years. It’s unbelievable what they’re doing to Cuba.
Doctorow:
The United States is a very vengeful country. I’m not speaking about individuals. Individuals have very short memories. But the deep state has a long memory and is vindictive. You speak about the sanctions against, the embargo on Cuba, the vitriolic language used to describe the Cuban leadership. What about Iran?
The conflict with Iran didn’t start last week. It didn’t start ten years ago. It goes back to 1979, the hostage taking of the American embassy in Tehran, which is never forgotten by the American political class. So this vengefulness towards Cuba is not an isolated case.
Alkhorshid: 26:08
Yeah. And talking about what’s going on right now in Ukraine, do you think that Russia is shifting its focus from the Kursk region to other regions?
Doctorow:
Well, I can’t say that it’s shifted its focus, but it’s shifted, well, it’s focused in the sense of what are they talking about? What is the news telling the Russian public? They’re talking only about the front lines in Donetsk and Donbass, because they’re scoring enormous victories, and the mood has changed entirely in Russian news coverage of the war. And they admit that, they say that themselves, that they have not seen anything like the present advances, not of inches, meters, but of kilometers every day.
And we talk about the collapse of the Ukrainian army. No, it’s not collapsing. And a different word is used, both in Russia and in Ukraine. They speak about sipitsa. They say the front is crumbling.
27:26
Now, crumbling is not the same thing as running away. But it means that there are weak points that are being revealed and taken advantage of every day along the front by the Russian troops. And they are proceeding with greater confidence, with more daring, I would say, because they are less fearful of a counterattack. But that being said, the Ukrainians still have very effective drone operations. And even on today’s news, one of the Russian war correspondents was counting his blessings that he was not blown to bits in his car, because a Ukrainian drone did hit his car earlier in the day. So the notion that its a steamroller, the Russians are just mowing down everything, is not inaccurate.
28:34
There is resistance. The Ukrainians, by pure perversity and I’d say cruelty of their senior command, are standing the ground, fighting and dying like men. That is praiseworthy, maybe, if you write patriotic poetry. But for the sake of the Ukrainian nation, of course, it’s a disaster that their men are being killed because they’re ordered to stand and hold the ground, which is untenable, which cannot be defended, and they don’t have sufficient fortifications to withstand the onslaught of the glider bombs and heavy artillery and so forth, and also the jet fighters that the Russians are throwing at them. For this reason, we see the front moving, evening out.
29:38
And we hear words said that we haven’t heard in two years, that they are moving not just on Bakrovsk, which is an immediate objective, but they’re now planning their moves on Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Now these are towns which had great iconic values, like speaking of the Alamo in Texas, because that’s where the Russian Spring of 2014, the rising in Donbas against the coup-d’etat government in Kiev, this is where their valiant local troops held out for 85 days against the vastly superior Ukrainian army. But those towns in the middle of Donetsk oblast are now in the sights of the Russian army. So a lot of attention is being given there, and it’s as though Kursk doesn’t exist. Of course there’s fighting going on in Kursk, the mopping-up operation.
30:51
Somehow– I mean, it is a 160-kilometer-long border, And there obviously are some porous parts of that border in which some additional troops from Ukraine are getting into Kursk and giving some relief to the remaining several thousand out of what must have been close to 30,000 troops overall that were introduced by Ukraine into the Kursk oblast. But these are still rather small units that are spread out over large territory and that is highly forested. And so it’s difficult to flush them all out very quickly and at least cost in lives to yourself. So the Russians are doing a methodical– and they’re doing this at their own leisure, one can say, while all of the dynamism in the Russian war effort is taking place in Donbas and primarily in Donetsk. What we have to remember is that going back to 2014, when the line of confrontation was frozen, these two main oblasts or regions of Donbas, Donetsk and Lugansk, they were held substantially by Ukraine, not by Russia.
32:23
This was true particularly of Donetsk. Lugansk, going back to the start of the special military operation, was mostly liberated by the Russian forces. Donetsk was not. And Donetsk, when you look at the map, the capital of the Donetsk oblast was just a dozen kilometers or so away from the line of confrontation. And therefore for more than a year, maybe 18 months, the capital of Donetsk was subject to daily artillery strikes and short-range rocket attacks coming from the Ukrainian forces just over the border, so to speak.
33:17
Well, they have been pushed back. The only strikes that hit Donetsk now are long-range missiles, not artillery, because they’re out of artillery range. And the pushback that has been slow, very slow, by the Russians in Donetsk, was made slow because of the eight, nine years of fortification building and digging in that the Ukrainians had done in the period between 2014 and the start of the special military operation in 2022. So it looks like nothing happened, nothing changed, but on the ground, around the Donetsk, a lot changed, particularly from a year ago. And now it’s dramatic changes that we see in the last few weeks.
Alkhorshid: 34:11
Do you think that– because we’ve learned recently that Ukraine is preparing to conscript 160,000 soldiers, new forces coming out, coming into the army of Ukraine– do you think that they’re preparing, they’re getting some sort of information from the United States that in the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, they’re going to get some sort of aid to improve their army, maybe put Ukraine in a better position — if, at the end of the day, they decide to go after negotiations?
Doctorow: 34:48
Well, you can project big numbers of mobilization. Implementing that in the present situation of a very demoralized population, which is what’s happened to Ukraine, when they’re entering a winter period with 80 percent of their power generation knocked out, when they’re going to face, the home front will be facing freezing temperatures in their residences, lack of water, lack of everything that electricity provides, that will further demoralize not just the general population, but the fighting population. And I believe the presently observed deserters level and presently observed flight and hiding of potential draftees will be exacerbated. So it’s inconceivable that numbers like this will actually find themselves in military uniforms. That being said, you come to the question of the disposition of forces. A large part of what the Russians are doing now is preparing for spring offensive.
36:15
Their offensive, not a Ukrainian offensive. And they’re doing that by occupying the heights. Now, there are no mountains in Ukraine, and heights means 250 meters above sea level. But if you are 250 meters above sea level, and the enemy is at sea level, then you have a very big military advantage. And that is what the Russians are doing. They’re taking all of the desirable locations to support a crushing blow if this war continues into the spring.
Alkhorshid: 36:56
How do you find right now in the mainstream media in the West, all over you find they’re talking about North Korean soldiers being in Russia, helping them against Ukrainians. How is that– in your opinion, what is the main reason of this type of rhetoric on the part of the West?
Doctorow:
Well, there’s several reasons, not just one. One of them is to cry foul and say the Russians are escalating and therefore we are entitled to an escalatory path. So they’re setting the public opinion to be prepared for the West to do something still more irresponsible in this war. That’s one aspect of it. It’s a diversion. It’s being used to suggest that the Russians are weaker than they seem. It is to detract from the military success in Donetsk, that their own newspapers and television reporters are putting out to the public every day, that Russians are steamrolling Ukraine, or perhaps I say that’s an exaggerated statement, but that’s how it’s being described, even in Western media today.
38:19
And if you say, oh, the Russians need to have those North Koreans to clear out Kursk, then it makes it seem as though the Russians really aren’t so formidable as you thought a moment ago. So it’s a demeaning disparagement of Russians and preparing your way for some kind of utterly stupid escalation from the side of the West. As for example actually setting off South Korean pilots and F-16s from Romania to defend Ukrainian airspace. That harebrained scheme is possibly what the dying days of the Biden administration might be plotting to enact. I don’t think it will happen. I imagine the South Koreans are not quite that stupid.
Alkhorshid: 39:15
We are approaching the day that the United States would decide who’s going to be the next president of the United States. So far it seems both candidates have a good chance of winning 2024. But in the case of Donald Trump, if he wins, do you think that … is he able to accept what Russia would put on the table to negotiate on? Because that would be so important that if he has the support from those people behind the scene to negotiate with Russia.
Doctorow: 39:53
There will be a difficult situation for Trump. The Russians have already put their cards on the table. That they have absolutely no trust in him or in his judgment, and they do not accept the notion that he can knock heads together and bring them to the table, the Ukrainians and the Russians to the table and end the war. I think that Trump, he and his advisors look closely at the situation will back away from this proposal of being honest brokers to end the war, because it will only involve them in making, approving actions that will be criticized by the opposition in the United States, by howls of anger over the American betrayal of this ally and future NATO member. So I think prudence will dictate that Trump solve the question in a manner that is least painful for his reputation, that takes the least political coinage from his side.
41:20
And that’s very simple. Stop, stop sending money, stop sending arms. That in itself will have the consequence of the Ukrainian capitulation, for which the United States can just wash its hands. “Well, guys, you couldn’t do it. Too bad.” But if he gets involved in negotiations, I think it will cost him a lot of political capital for no political gain.
Alkhorshid: 41:49
How about the situation with China? Do you think that as we have these two conflicts in Ukraine and in the Middle East, do you think that recently, I don’t know if you saw the interview of JD Vance talking about Iran and Israel, he said, “We are not interested in going to war with Iran because it doesn’t matter how much Israelis are pushing for a war with Iran. It’s not in our interest right now. We are not prepared for that.”
It seems that he wants to focus on China and what’s going on with China. And at the end of the day, we see that the case of Ukraine and even in the Middle East, somehow fading away. And the case of China is getting much more important in the eyes of the United States. Do you think … is that possible if Trump wins? We’re going to have at the same time, I don’t because I’m not, I don’t see that Trump would be able to put an end to any of these two conflict in Ukraine, in the Middle East. But do you think, are we going to have a new conflict? It doesn’t matter who wins, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. And are we going to have a new front on Taiwan, a new conflict, which would, these two countries, Iran and Russia, would be part of this conflict again, against the United States.
Doctorow: 43:24
Look, Donald Trump is not a towering intellect, nor is he a man to make long-term commitments to anybody. He is a showman. He is a rather skilled political actor. And he knows the value of pre-election promises, which is nil. He is saying a lot of irresponsible things, which I think, should power come into his hands, he will not hesitate for a moment to discard.
Then is the timing issue. The Ukraine war is with us right now. The Iran-Israeli conflict is with us right now. It is very good politics to say, “Oh, we have to go slow on these things because the bigger issue is the coming fight with China”, which is not right now, which is by American military estimates three, five years away. In five years, Donald Trump will be out of power. Donald Trump today is not the Donald Trump of 2016, when he had virtually no control of who would be serving him.
44:49
He was stymied by inability to get anyone through the Senate for approval, except those who were actually going to implement the opposite of what he wanted. And so he had people from Tillerson to Pompeo, not to mention his national security advisor, who were undermining entirely his intentions for foreign policy. That was the Donald Trump then. Donald Trump today has at his side formidable thinkers and actors. He has the world’s richest man at his side, Elon Musk.
Musk, I don’t think for a second, could entertain the idea of a real conflict with China. Much of his fortune is invested in China. It’s unthinkable that he would encourage Trump to head into a war with China. The other members around, other people around Trump, RFK Jr. is one, and there are others, people of a lot of maturity and not an infantile wish to show who’s boss to China.
46:10
So I don’t take, I take it with a grain of salt, all of the pre-election discussion in the Trump camp about a coming showdown with China. Showdown in the future is one thing, showdown in the present is something very different. And for that reason, I’m not at all worried about relations with China leading us to a world war.
Alkhorshid: 46:35
You have to consider that Donald Trump is amazing when it comes to firing people as well.
Doctorow:
Look, I have one enormous debt to Donald Trump and so do all of my peers, only I admit it and they don’t. If it weren’t for Donald Trump, this show would not exist and none of the other shows would exist, and we all would be silenced. He by his impudent, irresponsible language, as viewed by the deep state, he has given us all a voice. Whatever else you can say about Trump and many things negatives, for me that’s a saving grace. I hope it’s also understood by all of your viewers. They wouldn’t be listening to you.
Alkhorshid:
Yeah. Thank you so much, Gilbert, for being with us today. Great pleasure as always. And have a good trip.
Doctorow: 47:35
Thanks so much.
Published by gilbertdoctorow
Gilbert Doctorow is an independent political analyst based in Brussels. He chose this third career of 'public intellectual' after finishing up a 25 year career as corporate executive and outside consultant to multinational corporations doing business in Russia and Eastern Europe which culminated in the position of Managing Director, Russia during the years 1995-2000. He has publishied his memoirs of his 25 years of doing business in and around the Soviet Union/Russia, 1975 - 2000. Memoirs of a Russianist, Volume I: From the Ground Up was published on 10 November 2020. Volume II: Russia in the Roaring 1990s was released in February 2021. A Russian language edition in a single 780 page volume was published by Liki Rossii in St Petersburg in November 2021: Россия в бурные 1990е: Дневники, воспоминания, документы. View all posts by gilbertdoctorow
Published November 2, 2024
“The nature of the time, most serene prince, requires this, an observance of an old proverb, which enjoins kissing the hand we are unable to cut off”
Sebastien Guistinian, Venetian Ambassador to England’s Henry VIII
The Russia-China alliance has become an unstoppable powerhouse of visionary infrastructure projects across the Arctic, Eurasia, Africa and Europe exemplified beautifully by the evolving Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS. This cooperative alliance has tapped into a strategic reality of mankind’s genuine common interests which is so powerful that even countries formerly at war with each other and subjects of imperial manipulation have increasingly broken free in order to participate in this new paradigm.
This coalition of nations working with a common sense of both the manipulative hand behind the scenes and common focus for future cooperation may be a new phenomenon in our modern age, but it is certainly not without historical precedent. Not only did such an international coalition form in the wake of the 1865 union victory in the Civil War which saw nations like Germany, France, Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Japan form an anti-British Empire alliance for industrial progress and public works, but it also occurred during a peak of the European Golden Renaissance with an alliance known as the League of Cambrai (1508-1512).
However, just as the 19th century coalition of progress was derailed by a wave of assassinations, revolutions and wars, so too was the earlier League of Cambrai sabotaged before its mission to cleanse the world of oligarchism could be consummated.
With the knowledge that history doesn’t repeat, but rather fools repeat history- a brief analysis of the causes of the formation of the League of Cambrai and its ultimate self-destruction under the sophisticated intrigues of Venice (then the seat of an international financier oligarchy) can be best understood, and potentially foolish decisions can avoid repetition. Among the many authors I am indebted to for this research report, includes Gerald Rose, Robert Ingraham and finally Webster Tarplay whose 1981 studies published in Campaigner magazine continue to stand as some of the most thorough analyses available to modern researchers.
From Whence Sprince Today’s Potential?
The Russia-China alliance has become an unstoppable powerhouse of visionary infrastructure projects across the Arctic, Eurasia, Africa and Europe exemplified beautifully by the evolving Belt and Road Initiative. This cooperative alliance has tapped into a strategic reality of mankind’s genuine common interests which is so powerful that even countries formerly at war with each other and subjects of imperial manipulation have increasingly broken free in order to participate in this new paradigm.
The leadership of both Russia, China and a growing array of allied nations have taken a sober look at the geopolitical landscape which arose in the wake of the disastrous regime change wars-with-no-end in the Arab world and the inevitable nuclear war that would arise from an intended NATO confrontation with Russia or China and the decision to survive by changing the “rules of the game” was a no-brainer.
This coalition of nations working with a common sense of both the manipulative hand behind the scenes and common focus for future cooperation may be a new phenomenon in our modern age, but it is certainly not without historical precedent. Not only did such an international coalition form in the wake of the 1865 union victory in the Civil War which saw nations like Germany, France, Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Japan adopt the “American system” of protectionism and dirigism for industrial progress and public works, but it also occurred during a peak of the European Golden Renaissance with an alliance known as the League of Cambrai (1508-1512).
However, just as the 19th century coalition of progress was derailed by a wave of assassinations, revolutions and wars, so too was the earlier League of Cambrai sabotaged before its mission to cleanse the world of oligarchism could be consummated.
With the knowledge that history doesn’t repeat, but rather fools repeat history- a brief analysis of the causes of the formation of the League of Cambrai and its ultimate self-destruction under the sophisticated intrigues of Venice (then the seat of an international financier oligarchy) can be best understood, and potentially foolish decisions can avoid repetition.
Why did the League Arise?
The Golden Renaissance is an incredible singularity in the human experience.
Coming out of a centuries’ long Dark Age, what we today call “the Renaissance” is characterized on first approximation by a spike of human population, longevity and productive capabilities. Rather than treat this anomaly as “proof” that we are simply a cancer infesting the mother Gaia as modern radical ecologists are wont to do, it is more valuable to see it for what it was: The material EFFECT of a blossoming of creative ideas, and discoveries touching all fields of knowledge: medical, artistic, musical, architectural, scientific, and economic. The underlying cause of this was a deeper profound shift in understanding of Natural Law based upon a notion that mankind’s laws were only legitimate if they cohered with the discoverable laws (moral and physical) of nature. This was expressed by early Renaissance philosopher Cardinal Nicholas of Cusa who stated in 1433:
“There is in the people a divine seed by virtue of their common equal birth and the equal natural rights of all men, so that all authority – which comes from God as does man himself – is recognized as divine when it arises from the common consent of all the subjects… This is that divinely ordained marital state of spiritual union based on a lasting harmony by which a commonwealth is guided in the fullness of peace toward eternal bliss.”
This was a profound insight which rejected the popular notion of “man made in the image of mud” that had governed Europe under the feudal structures of oligarchism since the destruction of the Carolingian Empire of Charlemagne.
It took a bit of time for these concepts to become active organizing principles in the formation of the first nation state system of Louis XI of France in 1461, but when they demonstrated their effectiveness at organizing a nation and actualizing the creative powers of the citizens, it spread like wildfire. Louis XI qualified himself as a serious philosopher king which both Plato and Confucius in their times knew was the key for society’s salvation when he said: “When Justice reigns in a kingdom, the common good is well guarded, and so is the particular: Because Justice is such a virtue that maintains human company and common life, providing that everyone makes a wise use of common things as common; and of particular things as particular.”
After re-organizing his nations’ corrupt banking system and taxation system while re-directing the treasuries towards public works and mass education, France under Louis XI grew in power and managed to avoid military enmeshments that characterized Europe for centuries. His success was soon replicated in England as Henry VII of Tudor left France to overthrow the evil Plantagenet dynasty of Richard II in 1485 and followed Louis XI’s example. This “new statecraft” was simultaneously gaining steam across Italy’s city-states of Florence and Milan manifesting with the rise to prominence of such figures as Cosimo de Medici, Leonardo Da Vinci, and Nicollo Machiavelli. Leading humanist Aeneas Piccolomini, a follower of Cusa, was elected Pope in 1460 becoming Pius II which influenced the Holy Roman Emperor Friedrich III to the humanist cause.
Once Machiavelli became 2nd Chancellor of Florence in 1502, he immediately appointed Da Vinci as Chief Engineer to Cesar Borgia and the two worked closely together reforming military practices in defense of Florence for years.
Machiavelli, Leonardo, Borgia (who became the leader of Milan with Machiavelli’s help) understood well the nature of the evil that was trying to undo the new paradigm that they championed. It is here at this moment that it was realized that for the renaissance process to survive, a source of evil that plagued mankind for centuries had to be destroyed. As we shall later see, it was Venice that had been the primary force actively keeping the world at war and the population in the mud for centuries and those leading humanists knew that this force would not rest until the renaissance was undone and humanity was brought under total subjugation. Together they and leading co-thinkers across Italy, France and Spain organized an alliance which nearly wiped this evil from the face of the earth in 1508 called the League of Cambrai.
What Was Venice?
While Venice esteemed itself a republic (literally calling itself “the Serene republic”) it was in all pretenses a total oligarchy. The City-state was founded by leading families of the Roman oligarchy who sought refuge from Visigoths and Huns as the Empire collapsed in 450. It grew as a junior partner to the Byzantine Empire for centuries and formed a unique form of government. A senate amounting to nearly 1500 members of the nobility was formed which itself was headed by a Council of 10. Atop this pyramid was a council of three which utilized the figure of an elected doge to justify itself. The system was so effective that in its 1000+ years, only one attempt was made by a doge to go renegade- a crime for which he was publicly beheaded in 1355.
From below, the population was one of pure cattle living under a continuity of carnivals, prostitution, plague and poverty.
From 1201-1204, Venice had managed to run a coup on the Byzantine Empire with the pillage of Constantinople during the 4th Crusade. This was a masterstroke of evil genius that utilized fanatical European forces from France and the Holy Roman Empire who foolishly thought they were embarking on a Crusade to fight the Turks in the Holy Land. These fools were convinced to first pay debts they owed to Venice (for use of the latter’s transportation ships) by laying siege and looting the Christian City of Constantinople. This duplicitous scheme allowed Venice to not only destroy their older sister, but also took control of all her sea-based trade routes to boot. Venice also received a huge bribe from the Ottoman Empire for having kept Crusaders out of their way- thus freeing the Turks to destroy the remnants of the renaissance-Humanist culture of Baghdad in 1258.
By 1350, Venice had control over world finance through its monopoly of gold and silver bullion, maritime trade and the most sophisticated intelligence network on earth. Venice’s mastery of manipulating wars among potential allies while financing all sides was not limited to Europe. This “new Rome” had even spread its tentacles through Asia gaining a monopoly of trade in Mongol-controlled territories in exchange of offering political intelligence to the Khans whose success penetrating Russia, Kiev, Bulgaria, Hungary and beyond was made possible through such Venetian agents as Marco Polo and his father (Polo even became the Advisor to Kublai Khan).
Venetian Evil Called Out
Cosimo de Medici (sponsor of Cusa and the 1438 Council of Florence) said of the Venetians: “Association with the Venetians brings two things which have always been rejected by men of wisdom: perdition and disgrace” and Ludovico Sforza, an ally of Machiavelli said: “Venetians are obstinate and hardened, always keeping their mouths open to be able to bite off power and usurp the state of all their neighbors to fulfill the appetite of their souls to conquer Italy and then beyond as did the Romans, thinking to compare themselves to the Romans when their power was at its apex.”
Another ally of the League, Louis XII of France said the venetians “were traders in human blood, traitors to the Christian faith who have tacitly divided up the world with the Turks and who are already planning to throw bridgeheads across the Danube, the Rhine, the Seine, the Tagu and the Ebro, attempting to reduce Europe to a province and to keep it subjugated to their armies”.
Most eviscerating in his attack was Pope Pius II who said “As among brute beasts, aquatic creatures have the least intelligence, so among the human beings the Venetians are the least just and the least capable of humanity… They are hypocrites. They wish to appear as Christians before the world but in reality they never think of God and except for the state, which they regard as a deity, they hold nothing sacred, nothing holy… All law and right may be violated for the sake of power.”
The Success of the League
The League of Cambrai was established on December 10, 1508 uniting the highly corruptible Pope Julius II, the Holy Roman Empire Maximilian, France of Louis XII and Ferdinand I of Spain under the common cause of crushing this “new Rome” out of existence. Machiavelli was the driving force behind the league putting the project into motion in 1507 when he arranged for Maximilian to get on board with the agreement that Florence and Milan would finance the cause and provided strategic intelligence throughout.
Utilizing hired mercenary armies, the Venetians were unable to defend themselves against the onslaught that fell upon them. Venetian-controlled territories like Padua and Pisa were won by Florentine Citizen-soldiers organized by Machiavelli, Da Vinci and Borgia and with the decisive victory of France at Agnadello, the Venetian armies were obliterated on May 14, 1509. The Doge messaged the Pope begging for mercy and Machiavelli celebrated the victory writing that in one day, the Venetians “lost what it had taken them 800 years’ exertion to conquer.”
The Venetians were as good as finished… with no army left to defend themselves and the most powerful coalition of powers united together with all the capabilities to finish them off… so what happened?
The Failure of the League
Utilizing the weakest link in the coalition, Pope Julius II, the Venetians pulled off a secret bribe offering all of Rome’s lost territories and more to the Pope as well as a promise to buy alum from Papal territories at inflated values rather than with the Turks. This bribe turned the pope, and accordingly Maximilian against France and Florence as the League was left to disintegrate and a new Venetian-controlled alliance was created in 1512 called the Holy League which soon included England’s Henry VIII and Ferdinand I of Spain. Louis XII’s armies were decimated at the Battle of Ravenna in 1512 forcing a retreat to France and leaving Florence to be soon defeated. Machiavelli’s citizen army was promptly slaughtered, and the great leader tortured and exiled while Da Vinci evaded death by fleeing to Rome and later France.
The moment of great potential had collapsed an age of turmoil and war was unleashed which wouldn’t see a major respite until the establishment of the 1648 Peace of Westphalia (itself sabotaged by the same Venetian forces who by this time were in the midst of moving their center of power to the more strategic location of England and the Netherlands).
In the 2008 manuscript The Modern Anglo-Dutch Empire: It’s Origins, Evolution and Anti-Human Outlook, historian Bob Ingraham recounts in sordid detail how the leading families of Venice moved their operation out of the lagoons during the 17th century in order to become the Anglo-Dutch Empire. This valuable research recounts the creation of a new system of private central banking innovated by Venice’s Banco della Piazza di Rialto of 1587 which morphed into the Bank of Venice in 1619. This new banking paradigm created the model that was used in the creation of the Bank of Amsterdam in 1609 and later with the Bank of England in 1694 after the Venetian Party of England orchestrated a coup known as the “Glorious Revolution”.
This financial innovation was based on the realization that it is better to control a nation’s issuance of banknotes and bills of credit while masquerading a private corporation as a national institution rather than simply attempting to impose simple usury on a nation as had been previously done for centuries.
How Not to Repeat History
While the 1648 Peace of Westphalia saw a re-activation of the renaissance principle enunciated by Cusa, Europe soon fell back into organized warfare leaving the beautiful principles of the treaty mere words on parchment. While the 1776 American Revolution again saw a re-activation of this principle, its spread throughout Europe and beyond was also crushed with the perversion of the French revolution which turned into an irreparable bloodbath by 1791. While the 19th century alliance of sovereign nations adopting Lincoln’s system also nearly resulted in a new age of progress and win-win cooperation, it too was destroyed by small-minded fools falling prey to short-term games and their own egos.
Today, 135 nations have been brought into solidarity with the Russia-China’s alliance and this new momentum for progress and cooperation has inspired a renewed nationalism across even the Trans-Atlantic Community which had fallen so deeply under Anglo-Dutch financial control throughout the 20th Century that few had believed hope could still exist. Even America’s constitutional traditions once believed lost to its post-JFK conversion into Britain’s dumb giant appears to be experiencing a much-needed revival under President Trump.
With nearly 8 billion souls on the planet and the power of the atom at our fingertips, the stakes have never been higher and the liberty to act the fool in the face of Venetian evil never so intolerable.